Tuesday, August 20, 2013

(Politics) Egypt: Why Egypt is such a mess

While some may disagree, politics or rather political events are very easy to predict and the brutal push back by the military and security forces against Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood supporters is a testament to the best way to make projections about political conflict; the most organized and moneyed side of a political conflict will almost always end up on top. It has always been clear that the military was going to repress the Muslim Brotherhood as save the military, the brotherhood is the most powerful political group in the country and therefore provide competition the military cannot abide by.

The Military has never been fans of the Muslim Brotherhood when Hosni Mubarak was in power and when they removed Mohammed Morsi from power supposedly satisfying the will of the people, the slaughter of so many on the streets of Cairo of Brotherhood Supporters was terrifyingly predictable. What will next happen next is unclear but do not be surprised when the Brotherhood   end up being forced out the political process into the periphery of the national political discourse and start engaging in acts that may remind people why the Muslim Brotherhoods aren’t exactly the most popular political organization in the country.

With this violent interplay between the military and the brotherhood, the rest of the world looks on and see the results of what happens when unpopular yet democratically elected officials are ousted as the military has no legitimacy other than it is organised and moneyed enough to take on any force or group in Egypt and win handily thanks to the monopoly it has over violence. More still, the military still has pro-Mubarak sentiments within its quarters and with the army taking an aggressive stance towards the Brotherhood, it’s making a move Morsi would have done if he was still in power.

And with the news that former leader Hosni Mubarak may be freed, it is easy to come to the conclusion that the military are prepared to take over the ‘big evil’ mantle Mubarak once held. It has been recently reported that Mohammed Badie, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood, has been arrested and should he die in custody, things will only get worse, if that’s possible. All in all, this is very ugly episode that has been on the cards since Morsi was deposed and now the military is now systematically destroying its competition much like a mafia don would to secure his position.

In sum, if there was ever a doubt that there is little difference between politics and crime, it would the current conflict between the Military and the Muslim brotherhood as the Military isn’t looking to subdue a threat to the state but rather weaken and if possible, destroy its competition. Finally, whatever happens in next few weeks, months and even years in Egypt, citizen of the country must prepare themselves for tumultuous times ahead.   

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