Sunday, February 13, 2011

Not Yet!

Pro democracy supporters in liberation square in Cairo are celebrating the departure of  Mubarak, Egypt's leader for the last three decades with an 'doctorate in stubbornness'. on the 9th of february, Mubarak frustrated and angered many more as he proved the recurring truism (especially on these pages) that nationalism is the last retreat for the politicians fresh out of ideas with his speech which was expected to be his announcement of his resignation. However, the following day Mubarak left his post as president of egypt devolving all his powers to his vice president, former ally and former head of the secret police, Omar Suleiman. 

While the departure of Hosni Mubarak is cause for celebration, a closer appraisal of the situation in Egypt may prove a cause for concern. Suleiman has already cited concerns over the possibility of a coup, if this is so, the military is the only player organized and admired by the average Egyptians to pull it off. However, it can be argued that such fears are unnecessary as Suleiman, a man with a strong military past, appears to be the army's main candidate if the military was ever to back a political candidate in any democratic Egyptian election in the future. 

He was tipped by many to be the successor to the Mubarak regime following the post-Nasser trend of Egyptian presidents with strong military backgrounds due to his close relationship with Mubarak , which, surprisingly, has not hurt him as much as expected. The military, throughout the events of the last few weeks seemed to be waiting to see how this would play out before they made their move, purposely not attacking the pro-democracy protesters , though not intervening when the the protesters were attacked by pro-Mubarak forces briefly returning Egypt to a state of nature with both sides retreating to the biblical weaponry of stones and hopeful aim.

The military remains the most powerful and well financed institution in Egypt with just under a half a million members and maintains  favor with the Egyptian public. If there's to a renegotiation of the social contract military has a very powerful bargaining position in its drafting. The Pro-democracy protestors must get a seat at the bargaining table if there is to be a complete revolution and not cosmetic changes to be slowly stripped away through the use trojan horse legislation. In sum, Egypt transformation not valid and functioning democracy is only at it's early stages and the success of it relies on the pro-democratic movement to make it's self, as it has for the last few weeks, a force to be reckoned with as the struggle for democracy has only begun.    


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