Monday, January 21, 2013

(Opinion) Obama Inauguration: Second term prospects for Obama's policy success

While there is a lot of speculation about what President Obama’s second term will look like, it would be easy to argue is going to look pretty much like his first. Obama will do little about changing the United States drone policy or curbing the war on terror despite its destructive outcomes (and what looks set to escalate in the in light of the hostage tragedy in Algeria) or climate change as he can’t discuss climate change Republican party, who have many members in congress and among the rank and file who don’t believe it’s happening and think it’s a hoax.

Due to the tragedy at took place in Newtown, will have a an ugly fight with NRA and the Republicans in getting legislation through congress telling from the already ugly tone gun control  debate has taken already. The NRA, free of shame, went after the children of the President citing the false discrepancy between the protection his children get and opting not to put armed guards at every at school across the country as if the President and indeed his children are not the best targets for kidnapping or murder for any group looking hurt the country.  

It will be a draining but necessary fight but Obama, if he gets something done, will have some political capital to spend, and it is vital that he spends it trying to get to a jobs bill through congress.

While his election served as the first black swan against the maxim that presidents don’t get a second term in a bad economy, the Obama campaign were really successful at destroying Mitt Romney’s simple message of ‘are you better than you were four years ago’ by launching a successful character assassination against it messenger by portraying him as an aloof and cold-hearted plutocrat who could care less about the plights of working people.

There was no real talk about jobs as Obama has done very little about tackling America’s unemployment rate and in the recent negotiations preceding the media and congress created ‘fiscal cliff’, which would have saw the much despised bush era tax cuts expire, Obama saw to it that the tax cut hated by most of his party are now permanent in exchange for an small rise in the tax rate.

Obama will get somewhere in the almost certain fight about immigration as Republicans have woken up to the reality that the public is to the left on many of the social and cultural issues that plague the country.  He will get a lot of movement in getting the Dream Act passed and getting currently undocumented immigrants on a track leading to citizenship.

In sum, Obama Inauguration will be a joyous occasion as Americans will once again  bears witness to an African American taking the oath of office and also for all who love lofty speeches and the choreography of  American Politics in general. However when the music and the celebrations dampen, there is a great chance of Obama proving once and for all the trends of all politics is continuity, not change. 

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