(Politics) Brazil Protest: Brazilian Discontent In Numbers

We all have seen the images of Brazilian discontent towards their political representatives and the perceived corrosion of public services as Brazilians took to the streets in records number across major cities. The spark for this show of solidarity was a rise in bus fare which may seem trivial but it was clearly the final straw that broke the camel's back as discontent among Brazilians  has been a notable trend. According to a poll published by Gallup, public protests should shock nobody as Brazilians since 2010 have been less than impressed with the state of public services such as healthcare and schools with public satisfaction in schools sinking from 57% in 2010 to 48% in 2012 and a 16% (41% in 2010 and 25% in 2012) drop  in public satisfaction with healthcare in the same period.

The Brazilian public have also fallen out of love with the country's infrastructure with public satisfaction in transportation falling from 56% in 2010 to 48% in 2012 and public satisfaction with roads and highways dropped from 53% in 2010 to 44% in 2012. 

However, the most damning and important trend in the Gallup poll was the the Brazilian public attitude towards its government while 61% approved of their political leaders job performance 2010, only 47% could say the same in 2012. What's also interesting is the percentage of the Brazilian public who think their government is corrupt. while an astonishing 61% of Brazilians thought their government as corrupt in 2010, just two years later, that number shot up to 71%. 

What is shocking about these numbers is not that they are so high in a country considered a stable democracy, but they are part of a consistent trend of over two-thirds of the country see their government as corrupt. However, their view of their government is justified by a number of high profile scandals involving political officials such as the Mensalao scandal involving the former chief of staff former to ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

In sum, Brazil are a number of factors that have lead to the record breaking turnout across the country as the people of Brazil are now prepared to confront a government they have suspected of being corrupt for so long. They are no longer willing to accept the current state of affairs which were masked by the country stunning growth in recent years which is only now starting to stagnate. Finally, Brazil is a country with problems  that could rip it apart such as its well earned tag as one of the most unequal countries in the world and discontent towards members of its political class but these numbers in tandem with the protests should remind Brazil's leaders that a government that does not serve it people serves its demise. 

    

(Video) Romney election 2012 campaign: election 2012 already over

(Opinion) Mother Jones Romney Video: Mother Jones Video insight into Why Mitt Romney cannot win

Due the election being too close to call, Mitt Romney may become president, but  mother jones video recording Romney's comments at a private fundraiser reveals why he might not. Romney comments regarding fellow American reveal an attitude that should shock very little due to the ideas of the republican platform and the numbers indicating that Mitt Romney will have to rely on his republican base and the majority of independents to win. However what is wrong is not Romney’s analysis of his chances of winning, but his attitude to fellow Americans who will vote for the Obama/Biden ticket.

Romney cites his belief that almost half of his fellow American will never vote for him as they believe that government should ‘take care of them’ and see themselves ‘victims’[1]. Romney continued his assessment of fellow Americans set to vote for Obama by citing a large number(47 percent) of Americans who do not pay income tax  and  are ‘government dependent’ with regards to  healthcare and housing[2]. 

With this knowledge, Mitt Romney sees that this group will never vote for him as the republican platform of ‘low taxes doesn’t connect’[3] and he cannot ‘convince them (that) they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives’[4]. To remedy this Romney suggests that he should appeal for the votes of independent voters who may vote reasons more to do with ‘emotion’ than rational thought[5].

Politicians are prone to gaffes but mitt Romney looks like he’s trying to break a political record in an age where people like Romney who made their money in finance aren’t exactly the flavour of the month. Romney has actively expressed his intention to ignore 47 percent of the electorate based on their views about government and possibly income status. The point of an election is to win as many votes as possible, so effectively giving up on 47-48 percent  of fellow Americans is suicidal to any hopes Romney had to become president.

Mother Jones infiltration of Mitt Romney closed door fundraiser revealed not only Mitt Romney’s attitude to Obama voters but his cynical approach to politics. While it would be foolish to suggest that Romney is the only politician guilty of having a cynical outlook on the American electoral process, it is strange that Mitt Romney would be so pessimistic in one of the very few elections in American life where the electorate are open to argument.

While congressional races favour the incumbent to the point of criminality, presidential elections tend to be open to argument as people are open to a vision of America that appeals to them which further condemns Romney practically in the video that the republican platform is rather limited.

However, while Romney expressed a rather pessimistic view of the American electorate, his point citing Americans that will not vote for vote for him does have a kernel of truth.as according to a poll taken by Gallip, 20 percent of voters will not vote for Romney because of his wealth and neither will 37 percent of democrats and a notable 19 percent of independents[6].

In sum, Mitt Romney was never going to able to market himself as a man of the people due to the fact he is rich and how he made his money but the mother jones video revealing an honest Mitt Romney stating his honest thoughts about the electorate  reveals the cold and calculating logic many voters have suspected Mitt Romney of having.

 

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[1] D. Corn, 2012, secret video: Romney Tells Millionaire Donors what he reall thinks of Obama voters, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser

[2] E. MaCaskill, 2012, Mitt Romey stand by gaffe but says case not elegantly stated,  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/18/romney-secret-video-government-dependent

[3] D. Corn, 2012,  secret video: Romney Tells Millionaire Donors what he really thinks of Obama voters, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser

[4] Ibid

[5] Ibid

[6] F. Newport. 2012,  Mitt Romney’s Wealth Costs Him With One in Five Voters,  http://www.gallup.com/poll/155627/Mitt-Romney-Wealth-Costs-One-Five-Voters.aspx

(Opinion) Coalition government cabinet reshuffle: why is George Osborne still in office?

While the world is full of things that are beyond comprehension, George Osborne remaining as Chancellor of the Exchequer after the cabinet reshuffle has just joined the ranks. In the government’s recent cabinet reshuffle there has been some strange and expected changes such as the demotion of Ken Clarke (expected) and promotion of Jeremy Hunt to health secretary (strange) but why Prime Minster David Cameron has not thrown George Osborne a break and move him to a position closer to the PM office is very strange given the calls across the political spectrum to bench him or move him out of the treasury.

Perhaps it is because he believes in the programme currently in place at the treasury as he hasn’t failed to move out minsters who don’t agree him on key issues such as Kenneth Clarke and Justine Greening (the latter of which has sparked a major rift within the conservative party[1]) or ministers who have performed poorly such as Andrew Lansley. The fact that George Osborne remains in office reveals not only move to the right in the cabinet[2]   but a preference for loyalty over performance.

While George Osborne did not inherit an economy in great shape, his implementation of trademark conservative policies has done him and the coalition government in general no favours. George Osborne budgets have made large cuts in taxes, housing and education while presiding over Britain’s continuous slide into a double dip recession. However his performance is really the problem so much as his unpopularity with only 34% of the British thinks George Osborne is “doing a good job”[3].

The lack of change in the cabinet reshuffle, at least in positions that are key to the implementation of conservative policies, represents an assertion of a prime minster determined to get rid of the well earned tag of being government of that has only mastered the art of the u-turn. However as a result of this, the government’s main opposition to this assertion in policy will be the conservatives as the government is already receiving criticism for its changes in the cabinet. London Mayor Boris Johnson was quick to denounce the removal of Justine greening from the position of transport secretary due to her opposition to the addition of a third runway at Heathrow describing her as a “first rate Transport Secretary”[4].

In sum, David Cameron may be a conservative prime minster but has revealed his allegiance to his allies amenable to favoured policies rather to efficient and effective governance. While no one in politics expects a politician not to turn to his cronies in a time of need, for it to be done so openly for all to see is what gives reason for criticism. Geroge Osborne is a prime example of this criticism as he has performed poorly and is highly unpopular yet manages to stay in the cabinet despite his strengths is in political rather than economic strategy.   

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[1] H. Siddique, 2012, Heathrow runway row: Cameron flies into storm of Tory criticism, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/05/heathrow-runway-row-cameron-tory

[2] P. Wintour and N. Watt, 2012,  David Cameron’s right turn in cabinet reshuffle, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/04/david-cameron-government-reshuffle-cabinet?intcmp=239

[3] P. Kellner, 2012,Budget hurts Tories but doesn’t help Labour,

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/03/23/budget-hurts-tories-doesnt-help-labour/

[4] Quoted by P. Wintour and N. Watts, 2012, David Cameron’s right turn in cabinet reshuffle, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/04/david-cameron-government-reshuffle-cabinet?intcmp=239

(Video) Classic debate: Hitchens/Fry V Widdicombe/Onaiyekan

Classic debate featuring the late Christopher Hitchens, Stephen Fry and Ann Widdicombe arguing for and against the motion that the Catholic church is a force for good in the world.

(Opinion) Mitt Romney negative unfavorables: No surprise

It will never be a easy running for president but you know your campaign is in trouble  when the only bright spot in the week is receiving the backing of Hollywood legend Clint Eastwood[1]. According to a poll by the Pew Research Centre, Mitt Romney, for the sixth time in 9 months, has had negative ratings with regard to his personal image[2].

While there were signs of improvement in his favourables due to a 26 point gap between his favourable and unfavorables were cut down to 7 but in the last month, the gap has grown again by 8 points[3]. Compare Romney’s favourable rating to Obama’s and a 13 point difference emerges in favour of Obama, despite the President’s unfavourable numbers being on the high side for an incumbent[4].

These numbers were collected before Romney’s disastrous foreign tour where he managed to break the golden rule of state visits and general etiquette when in the home of others: Do not, at all costs, insult the host. Winning an election is hardly a walk in the park but its damn near impossible with favourable/unfavourable ratings like this.

However this is no surprise as the democrats have done fantastic job as painting Mitt Romney as rich, tax dodging plutocrat. Prominent democrats have toured TV shows and took to the floor of congress demanding that Romney reveals his tax returns with Democratic senator of Nevada Harry Reid publicly accusing Romney of not paying his taxes for the last decade[5].

While it’s not all good, it’s not exactly all bad either as Romney remains a competent fundraiser and despite his worrying favourable/unfavourable numbers, he still has a chance to become president in an election that is going to be too close to call.

In sum, it has been a horrible week for Romney and a horrible six months for his favourable/unfavourable ratings but the best news in the Romney camp is probably  lies in the fact that Britons and Palestinians don’t vote in US national elections and popularity don’t necessarily correlate progress in the polls that matter.  

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[1] Belfast Telegraph, 2012, Clint Eastwood Backs Romney For President, http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/us-election/clint-eastwood-backs-mitt-romney-for-president-16193809.html

[2] Pew Research Centre, 2012, Romney’s personal image remains negative, http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/02/romneys-personal-image-remains-negative/

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

[5] S. Mehta, 2012, Harry Reid, Mitt Romney Trade Sharper Barbs Over Taxes, http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-harry-reid-mitt-romney-trade-sharper-barbs-over-taxes-20120803,0,3256490.story

(Opinion) Wisdom in unlikely places

Fox news and Washington post contributor Charles Krauthammer may be a staunch conservative and has come up with ideas with regards to foreign policy that would make the hair on your skin stand on end, but has today proved wisdom has no political affiliation. Krauthammer today has cut through the rhetoric and has got to the truth about the Arab Spring: its a transition of one Political idea for another.

While Krauthammer largely points to the danger of the transition of political Islamism for military Pan- Arabism, his points are spot on.  He points out the rather thin liberal base and the popularity of political Islam. this reality is reflected further in the polls as two thirds of Egyptians would like Islam to play a greater role in politics. however, there is a great drop in Egyptians who would like a closer relationship in politics as before the Arab spring, more than 80 percent wanted Islam to play a greater role in politics, which, depending on your viewpoint, represents progress.

Krauthammer notes a potential cause for this demand by citing the military in many countries in the middle east rather brutal suppression of any dissent, especially from political Islamists during 60's onwards. This suppression led to a radical change in tactics from opposition groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood who turned to acts of terror in Egypt to get their message across and led to the Islamic revolution in Iran which still stands strong.

This will  lead to some serious ramifications for the US in their efforts in creating stability in the middle east as they are largely unpopular in countries most affected by the Arab spring as the policy of containment used by the United States during the cold war is largely responsible for the repressive regimes which gave cause for protest in the first place.

(Opinion) Ah!, aint nothing more refreshing than progess

In a age where positive change is rare and cruel irony is a dime a dozen, it does feel good in write on a positive sea change in opinion.  According to Gallup polling, only one third of Americans want less immigration, the lowest percentage in Gallup polling in four decades. in the space of one year there has been a 10 to 15 percentage bump across party lines in those who think immigration is good for the United States and those thinking there should be an increase of immigration to the US represent the best numbers Gallup have reported on the issue.

There many reason for this sea change, but the most clear seems to be the notable slowdown  in legal and illegal immigration from US neighbors Mexico. Mexicans have usually immigrated to the US because the US economy represented better opportunities than they would have in their homeland.

Now that the United States finds its economy struggling to find an exit out of dudsville, more Mexicans are deciding to stay at home. However there has been an increase in Asian immigrants as many come to live and study in the US, contributing largely to the boom in high tech jobs.  
It seems that the United States has found its welcoming spirit again after a decade scarred by the countries worst attack on it soil which largely set the tone of american politics and policy for the rest of the decade especially regarding foreign policy and immigration.

 9/11 had Americans questioning the efficacy of its reputation as the worlds cultural and ethnic melting pot as paranoia and searching questions were the order of the day. now, the US seems to have recovered from the shock of finding out how vulnerable a nation state even as powerful as the United States is to threats of a global context and now seem ready to embrace the realities of its domestic trends as more american have become open to issues they wouldn't have explored which indicates that the United States is on the trajectory the founding fathers intended; a nation seeking a more perfect union.