(Politics) Egypt: Why Egypt is such a mess

While some may disagree, politics or rather political events are very easy to predict and the brutal push back by the military and security forces against Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood supporters is a testament to the best way to make projections about political conflict; the most organized and moneyed side of a political conflict will almost always end up on top. It has always been clear that the military was going to repress the Muslim Brotherhood as save the military, the brotherhood is the most powerful political group in the country and therefore provide competition the military cannot abide by.

The Military has never been fans of the Muslim Brotherhood when Hosni Mubarak was in power and when they removed Mohammed Morsi from power supposedly satisfying the will of the people, the slaughter of so many on the streets of Cairo of Brotherhood Supporters was terrifyingly predictable. What will next happen next is unclear but do not be surprised when the Brotherhood   end up being forced out the political process into the periphery of the national political discourse and start engaging in acts that may remind people why the Muslim Brotherhoods aren’t exactly the most popular political organization in the country.

With this violent interplay between the military and the brotherhood, the rest of the world looks on and see the results of what happens when unpopular yet democratically elected officials are ousted as the military has no legitimacy other than it is organised and moneyed enough to take on any force or group in Egypt and win handily thanks to the monopoly it has over violence. More still, the military still has pro-Mubarak sentiments within its quarters and with the army taking an aggressive stance towards the Brotherhood, it’s making a move Morsi would have done if he was still in power.

And with the news that former leader Hosni Mubarak may be freed, it is easy to come to the conclusion that the military are prepared to take over the ‘big evil’ mantle Mubarak once held. It has been recently reported that Mohammed Badie, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood, has been arrested and should he die in custody, things will only get worse, if that’s possible. All in all, this is very ugly episode that has been on the cards since Morsi was deposed and now the military is now systematically destroying its competition much like a mafia don would to secure his position.

In sum, if there was ever a doubt that there is little difference between politics and crime, it would the current conflict between the Military and the Muslim brotherhood as the Military isn’t looking to subdue a threat to the state but rather weaken and if possible, destroy its competition. Finally, whatever happens in next few weeks, months and even years in Egypt, citizen of the country must prepare themselves for tumultuous times ahead.   

(politics) Egypt: Egyptians Celebrate Removal of President Morsi

(Opinion) Egypt: A revolution can't get behind if you are in favour of democracy

“It is easy to imagine the president from day one as walking a tightrope, on the other side is survival, or at least as far as where his state stolen funds will take him when the going gets tough, the audience watch with suspense some calling for him to fall, some, reluctantly, encouraging balance, and the military simultaneously encouraging him across while having a pair of scissors in one hand and the other threatening to shake the rope”[1]. 

For all the faults of the Morsi presidency from his less than democratic handling  and drafting of the new Egyptian constitution and his inability to bring stability to a country that has only known chaos for the last two years, the likely event of Morsi getting ousted by the army after it issued a threat imploring the president to either restore calm to the streets of Egypt  or face the possibility of being ousted.

(Opinion) Mohammed Morsi: too little, too late

Say what you want about politics as a profession or process but one thing that can be said about politics that would be true is that politics is not a game of half measures. Mohammed Morsi today has learnt this to his detriment as the Egyptian president “scrapped a decree… (that gave) him near-absolute powers”[1].Initially defending his move to usurp power Morsi has abandoned ‘sweeping powers’ that allowed Morsi to “declare emergency laws and him from judicial oversight”[2].

Morsi’s power grab has instantly split the country into two or at least the protesters in Cairo, Egypt’s capital. A prime example of the split manifested outside the presidential palace as “supporters and opponents of president Mohammed Morsi threw rocks and firebombs at each other” throwing the country into crisis[3]. His usurpation of pharaoh-like power has been costly as it has sapped away any political capital Morsi may have had and sure not be forgotten due the death of seven Egyptians[4].

Mohammed Morsi must have seen this reaction coming as pulling power moves in a country with a healthy dislike for dictators is sure to spark widespread anger, just ask Hosni Mubarak. His mandate was narrow to begin with due to just beating a pro-Mubarak apparatchik narrowly as the nation effectively chose to go with the lesser of two hated but organized evils.

The only legitimacy Morsi had was to implement reforms that gave Egyptians more freedoms, the main reason, along with other factors, behind the revolution in the first place. Now he has to mend fences and make real concessions to bring the secular and liberal opposition to the table, probably starting with the draft constitution secular and liberal groups strongly disagree with as they contest that the document “only represents Islamists, disregarding the rights of liberals, women, workers, and Christians”[5].

In sum, Morsi has made a serious mistake in usurping ‘sweeping powers’ as he should have calculated that there would be a serious reaction to such news from a people who have grown a healthy appetite for protest and confrontation of power.

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[1] A.R Hussein, 2012, Egypt: Mohammed Morsi cancels decree that gave him sweeping powers, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/09/egypt-mohamed-morsi-cancels-decree

[2] Ibid

[3] Guardian.co.uk, 2012, Morsi supporters clash with protesters outside presidential palace in Cairo, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/05/morsi-supporters-protest-presidential-palace-cairo

[4] The  Jerusalem Post, 2012, Morsi meets army chief, cabinet after clashes, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=294891

[5] H. Maher, 2012, ElBaradei says Morsi’s’ legitimacy ‘hangs by thread’, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/59876/Egypt/Politics-/ElBaradei-says-Morsi%E2%80%99s-legitimacy-hangs-by-thread.aspx

(Opinion) Egypt military reshuffle: Way to go?

While most leaders (in the west especially) go out their way to accommodate the military from generously funded weapons programs and research to praise of dead and living soldiers , in the Middle East of late, the opposite seems to be happening. The Egyptian government is outwardly dismissing and retiring army chiefs left and right underlined by the news that 70 generals are set to be retired[1]. This announcement comes after recently elected president Mohammed Mursi was quick to get rid of top military personnel such as General Mohammed Hussein Tantawi and his chief of staff[2].

The current trend is strong in turkey as the Turkish government has recently prosecuted more than three hundred current and retired military personnel for allegedly planning a coup against the government[3] and have retired “dozens of generals and admirals”[4]. Civilian rule in Turkey have become more assertive in the last decade since Tayyip Erdogan came to power who has successfully sought to dominate a military that has had a ”dominant role” to play in Turkish politics[5].

The similarities between the Egyptian and turkey governments are striking as both leaders have a pro Islamic platform and are part of parties that have traditionally been marginalized by secular parties in power. This trend represents a step in the right direction as the military in many Middle East have had dominant role to play in civilian rule outwardly dominating the political class. Such a set up is clear in countries such as Pakistan where the military and judiciary are aligned against politicians who hold an almost a platonic view of politicians and democracy.

However there is another perspective from which this trend can be viewed.  Such a trend can be viewed as a step backward in the secularization of Middle East countries as two major countries in Middle East are now run by pro-Islamic leaders. The military has had a large part to play in the secularization these countries with the military producing leaders hostile to Islamic organizations and, especially in Attaturk Turkey, to Islamic culture.

While this perspective has some validity, the trend of assertion by civilian rule over the military is a step in the right direction as the military organization skills are efficient, it is limited as the military is built to deal with rigours and challenges of warfare not the governance of a nation.

In sum, the assertion of civilian rule in the Middle East has a step in the right direction after so many years of military dominance. Egypt, after so many years have full control of their destiny as they can hold their leader accountable as he is no longer owes his position to the military but to the Egyptian people.

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[1] BCC News, 2012, Egypt retires 70 army generals, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19456182

[2] Ibid

[3] E.Toksabay, 2012, Turkish military coup trial nears verdict,

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/08/06/uk-turkey-military-trial-idUKBRE8750G120120806

[4] AFP, 2012, Turkey military ‘coup suspects’ forced to retire, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnYNOJ27QxdqFFyu3v3N_PBgcT9w?docId=CNG.3a08c6899195c45e01f258f28bb7edc1.5a1

[5] Ibid

(Opinion) Wisdom in unlikely places

Fox news and Washington post contributor Charles Krauthammer may be a staunch conservative and has come up with ideas with regards to foreign policy that would make the hair on your skin stand on end, but has today proved wisdom has no political affiliation. Krauthammer today has cut through the rhetoric and has got to the truth about the Arab Spring: its a transition of one Political idea for another.

While Krauthammer largely points to the danger of the transition of political Islamism for military Pan- Arabism, his points are spot on.  He points out the rather thin liberal base and the popularity of political Islam. this reality is reflected further in the polls as two thirds of Egyptians would like Islam to play a greater role in politics. however, there is a great drop in Egyptians who would like a closer relationship in politics as before the Arab spring, more than 80 percent wanted Islam to play a greater role in politics, which, depending on your viewpoint, represents progress.

Krauthammer notes a potential cause for this demand by citing the military in many countries in the middle east rather brutal suppression of any dissent, especially from political Islamists during 60's onwards. This suppression led to a radical change in tactics from opposition groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood who turned to acts of terror in Egypt to get their message across and led to the Islamic revolution in Iran which still stands strong.

This will  lead to some serious ramifications for the US in their efforts in creating stability in the middle east as they are largely unpopular in countries most affected by the Arab spring as the policy of containment used by the United States during the cold war is largely responsible for the repressive regimes which gave cause for protest in the first place.

(Video) tahrir square goes crazy!

(Opinion) Judicial activism on crack

American conservatives have long complained about liberals using the courts to establish policy, which is in a way the right side argument but have suffered the embarrassment of being on the wrong side of history, particular during the fight for civil rights throughout the sixties.

They also have been guilty of hypocrisy when courts have taken decisions that support their positions,none more clear than the stance of senior republicans  on the citizens united decision. but all republicans, and liberals for that matter, heads will explode in light of the trend of the anti democratic power  judges and their courts wield over politics in countries in the Middle East.

 Just when it looked it like Egypt was going to have a Muslim brotherhood president and a brotherhood dominated legislature, like badly written a deux ex machina, Egypt's supreme court dissolved parliament and the constitution in one stroke guaranteeing what some observers have seen coming for some time, a revolution, and now painful comprise,  betrayed. This is no surprise as there remains many supporters of the old regime still hold prominent positions of power , particularly in law.

This has led for the Muslim brotherhood to issue threats to the ruling military council detailing a return of the people the streets of Egypt, determined to have cake and eat it at any price. What looks set to take place is showdown between the military and the strange alliance of the liberals, who pushed for change in the first place, and the brotherhood, who took full advantage of it.

There is set to be many violent clashes and much blood will be spilled in the name of change but there is a feeling that the party with the guns will win out as they have what it takes to seal power, as they have done for the last 60 years. 

(Video) It's The Ideas, Stupid !!

TEDTalk on what really drove the Arab Spring.