(Sports) Boxing:Prediction – Cotto v Canelo

In an era where “low risk/ high reward” has become the prevailing mantra among fighters at the highest level of the sport, this Saturday evening presents us with a clash where the philosophy of “low risk/ high reward” is put aside for at least an evening as Miguel Cotto and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez go toe to toe in a bout that is truly a 50/50 match up.

Tonight’s fight between the Mexican and Puerto Rican natives promises to be a classic slugfest full of twists and turns as both are come forward fighters and can take punishment.

However, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Puerto Rican legend and future hall of famer Cotto ends the bout with his hands raised. While Cotto is more experienced ( he’s 10 years older than Canelo) and is the better boxer at least in terms of skill and ring IQ, it’s hard to see the stubborn 35 year old either knocking out or out boxing the younger, stronger and bigger fighter in Canelo.

I can see Cotto out boxing Canelo for at least the first three to four rounds owing his superior footwork but I also see Canelo coming on strong in the later rounds and ending the fight as Canelo will almost certainly push the pace of the fight which means Cotto may tire in the face of relentless pressure.

While Cotto’s trainer Freddie Roach has solid grounds to accuse Canelo of laziness and claim that this will allow Cotto to box clever all night due to Canelo’s notably poor ring cutting skills, Cotto will slow down in the third and final quarter of the fight as while chasing and missing an opponent can prove to be an exhausting enterprise, being hunted all night by an opponent who’s younger, bigger, hits harder, and can eat your best shot is just as tiring as it is discouraging.

Another advantage Canelo has is that he actually has a longer reach than Cotto which means he won’t have to work as hard to close the distance given he can throw punches from a longer range and still land punches that can hurt Cotto.

There are plenty of variables that could prove my prediction wrong as Cotto is the better boxer with one of the best trainers in the world in Freddie Roach in corner and both have enough experience to come up with a winning strategy to exploit Canelo’s weaknesses (ring cutting, low work rate) and nullify his strengths (power, youth) to great effect.

However, while Cotto will almost definitely expose weaknesses in Canelo’s game, I don’t see the him doing it for twelve without taking lot of punishment which I fear will force the referee to stop the fight if Canelo hasn’t already.    

In sum, whatever happens, this Saturday evening is going to  be a great night of boxing as two of the best in the sport of boxing go toe to toe but we believe  the power and youth of Canelo will overcome the skill and experience of Cotto.        

(Sports) Boxing: 2015 Going To Be A Great Year In Boxing

I’ve always thought 2015 was going to be a great year for boxing mostly for what happened outside the ring than in it as Golden Boy owner and boxing legend Oscar De La Hoya made all the right moves in his quest to get the best fights made inluding thawing the cold war between Golden Boy and Bob Arum’s Top Rank which opens up the possibility of a number of great fights.

2014 on the whole was a dismal year for the sweet science as the Al Haymon effect was felt full force as top talent in the sport under his advisement shamelessly ducked viable opponents, fought overmatched opponents (Danny Garcia’s shameful non-title bout with thethen unranked Rod Salka the most flagrant example), or dropped belts altogether for reasons still unclear to many boxing fans across the board.

But probably his most blatant transgression in 2014 was that he made the sport more predictable with his low risk approach to matchmaking, a worrying mindset that slowly kills a niche sport like boxing that thrives on fighters taking risky or difficult fights. Even worse than that, fighters, most notably those under his advisement, seemed to have internalized this mindset to the point that they were openly bragging about avoiding stiff competition to the chagrin of boxing fans everywhere.

However in 2015, even Al Haymon , probably the most risk averse adviser in the history of the sport, seems to have made a commitment to put his already large and growing stable of fighters in more competitive fights (though largely with each other) and despite the largely negative assessments of his influence on boxing offered by members of fourth estate, he managed to put boxing back on television after a long hiatus which easily the most encouraging news so far in the world of boxing.

Add to that the impressive PPV numbers generated by the Wilder v Stiverne and Alvarado v Rios III bouts and the heavyweight division becoming more competitive with  a growing list of contenders and prospects looking to make 2015 their year’ 2015 is looking like the year boxing comes back swinging for the fences.

With these developments, 2015 looks to be one of the best years in boxing in ages but what would put 2015 over as one of the best years in the history of sport would be to see the fight just about everybody wants, the yet to be made super fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao. It stands as a testament to the star power of both men that sports blogs have donated thousands of articles wildly speculating about Pacquiao’s and Mayweather’s next fight.

With nothing set in stone and Showtime and HBO yet to come to an agreement, boxing fans are forced to hold their breath and hope a deal is struck. However, with both fighters at least on speaking terms and there being way too much on the table for the networks prevent the fight from happening, there is  grounds to be optimistic that a deal will be done sooner rather than later.

In sum, 2015 is to be a great year in boxing and boxing fans after the nightmare of 2014 and maybe the year that boxing reestablishes itself as the world number one combat sport.

(Sport) Prediction: Canelo v Cotto a dead cert for next year

Golden Boy Promotions founder and owner Oscar De La Hoya has publicly stated his intention to make Saul "Canelo" Alvarez's next fight a real box office smash with four weight champ Miguel Cotto and with Top Rank's Bob Arum looking for Cotto to take on anybody other than a risky dust up with the dangerous Gennady "triple G" Golovkin, the Canelo v Cotto is real viable possibility.

The fight makes sense on so many levels and there are very few, if any, obstacles in the way of the fight being made which in a sport world famous for denying fans the fights they want to see owing to the Game of Thrones like blood feuds between promoters and managers. With the cold war between Golden Boy and Top Rank thawing with the departure of Richard Schaefer, 2015 could reestablish Boxing as the world premier combat sport after years of the sport falling in decline in the face of its own politics as there are plenty of great fights to be made between fighters in both stables.

The fight could take place next may probably in line with the month's Cinco De Mayo celebrations. Both Alvarez and Cotto are Box office draws and have fighting styles that ensure a great fight and more importantly a great purse of all parties involved which in truth determines whether a fight gets made. However one party that won't be to pleased with the fight will be Golovkin who has become a victim of his own success.

People have a lot of opinions about boxing and thanks to how the sports is run they're mostly negative but one thing you can say about the sport that's predicated by what moves the dial and the sad fact is that while Golovkin is great to watch, the Kazakh doesn't. According to Bad Left Hook's Scott Christ, Golovkin's three round demolition of the usually durable former champion Daniel Geale fared poorly in PPV  numbers as "the fight did an average of 758,000 viewers on HBO, cutting Golovkin's audience nearly in half from his last HBO appearance in November 2013". Add to that Golovkin's spectacular but ultimately noncompetitive demolition jobs scare the living hell out of promoters who are risk averse by nature which ultimately means Golovkin is going to have work cut out getting in the ring with real competition. 

In sum, I'm no believer in astrology or that human fate being wrapped up in the stars and planets above but the somehow the stars are aligned and a Canelo v Cotto card is coming one way or the other. 

(Sport) Golden Boy: Back on Track?

After the departure of Richard Schaefer, Floyd Mayweather effectively ending his business relationship with Golden Boy and the ominous long shadow of Al Hamyon over the company, its talent, and Boxing general, it looked like all the pieces were in place for Golden Boy to crumble right before our eyes.

However, in the last two months, Golden Boy founder and president Oscar De La Hoya has been making all the right moves in taking control of his company and getting fights made the public wants to see after years of the Schaefer, Mayweather and Haymon axis effectively ensuring that didn't happen thanks to Schaefer's and Mayweather tenuous relationship with Top Rank's Bob Arum and Al Haymon playing adviser to a large number of Golden Boy or Golden Boy affiliated talent including Amir Khan, Danny Garcia and Mayweather himself.

The Schaefer-Haymon connection has even landed Golden Boy in trouble as Kathy Duva, head of Main Events Promotions, sued Golden Boy along with Al Haymon and Showtime as Main Events thought they were cheated out of a Stevenson v Kovalev bout which was scuppered by Stevenson moving over to Showtime shortly after hooking up with Haymon.

However, Golden Boy, after years of looking like a glorified marketing machine for Al Haymon growing portfolio of fighters, have come up trumps as Main Events dropped the suit and Bernard Hopkins, WBA/IBF light heavyweight champion and part owner of Golden Boy, agreed to square up with Kovalev, a fight that will be aired on HBO. Hopkins had wanted to square up with the dangerous Stevenson but felt he was being played by his camp as “Hopkins’ suspect(ed) Haymon’s camp wanted to procrastinate setting up a bout with Stevenson so Hopkin’s would ultimately have to give up his IBF belt. Why? Because it was thought that Thomas Williams Jr, another Haymon fighter, would then be in line for it[1].”

The fight represents a major win for Golden Boy and another move to wrest control of its talent away from Al Haymon whose influence over the sport has been notable for all the wrong reasons with a string of his fighters avoiding real competition. The most disgraceful and blatant incident of this is set to take place today Between Al Haymon’s Danny Garcia and Ron Salka, who is a lightweight who is out of Garcia’s weight class in more ways than one.

Boxing fans have been screwed in the past when it comes to the best avoiding the best thanks to tribal beefs between the promoters and moneymen who run the sport but never has it been so brazen to the point that fighters, Mayweather being the main culprit of this new trend, bragging about avoiding opponents who can give them a run for their money.

However, things seem to be changing fast as the upcoming fight between Hopkins and Kovalev will the first time in over a year that a fighter on Golden Boy’s large roster has had a HBO aired fight. Ties between Golden Boy and HBO soured in lieu of a string of Golden Boy fighters, under the influence of Al Haymon, quit HBO to work with Showtime.   

HBO has always been good to Golden Boy and with Hopkins/Kovalev matchup, the healing process between the two can materialize. Golden Boy may have to come up with another great match up to shore up their relationship with HBO and according to comments De La Hoya has been making in the press that fight might be between Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez and Miguel Cotto.  The fight would instantly be box office as both fighters have strong fanbases and have a similar come forward style that usually makes for a slugfest.

Should this fight take place, it may also help establish HBO once again as the home of boxing. It would also be a body blow to Showtime who’ve so far have been putting up cards (and PPV numbers) that are less than convincing, today’s Garcia v Salka matchup being the most poignant example.

Apart from mending fences with HBO, Golden Boy has looked to end the long running feud with Bob Arum’s Top Rank. This move is one of the reasons why  Schaefer left Golden Boy but in the long run it makes sense as it opens up the potential for some great fights.  

Even Mayweather, who in lieu of the departure of Schaefer, severed ties with Golden Boy, may end up having to work with Golden Boy to promote fights whether he likes  it or not for the time being as his imprint, Mayweather Promotions, clearly doesn’t have the machine in place to promote big fight nights independently. Golden Boy are currently co-promoting his upcoming showdown with Argentine brawler Marcos Maidana next month and may even play a role promoting his next and last fight after Maidana against an unnamed opponent.

In sum, Oscar De La Hoya and Golden Boy have spent years presiding over the death of boxing as a competitive sport that has become more pronounced with growth of the company in the last five years. However, with De La Hoya taking over the reins of Golden Boy with a fan focused approach at the heart of his strategy, recent moves suggest that this could be the start of a new golden era of epic fights that will once again re-establish boxing as the world’s undisputed combat sport of choice.

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[1] S. Crose, 2014, Main Events No Longer Suing Haymon, Showtime and Golden Boy,  http://www.boxinginsider.com/headlines/main-events-longer-suing-haymon-showtime-golden-boy/