(Video) US Election 2012: when the future is not so easy to read

(Video) US Election 2012: when the future is easy to read

(Opinion) Pew research center poll: the america you never hear about

According to a poll carried out by the pew research center, 32 percent of adults of voting age identify themselves as ’lower class’ marked by a great increase in all age and race groups except black people[1]. People in this class seem to be waning in confidence of the American dream as they cite an increased need to ‘cut back spending’ and  only 51 percent believe that ‘hard work bring success’[2].

The fact that there is an marked increase in people who identify themselves as members of the lower class also has political implications as there has been big increase among independents and democrats who , but the most profound increase is among those who are republicans, who experienced a 10 jump[3]

However what is really profound is that the two major political parties have gone out their way not to recognise this voter bloc. While such an omission may be expected by republicans who have long been considered as the party of the rich, it is not so readily accepted by the democratic party, the self -claimed party of the ‘little guy’.

From the Clinton era onwards, the Democratic Party has made it a point to market itself to the middle class rejecting a growing working class/lower class demographic that is pessimistic about America’s future to say the least. The most revealing findings in the poll was the increase in young people between the ages of  18-29 who consider themselves lower class  from from 25 percent in 2008 to 39 percent in 2012[4].

This represents a major blow to one of the most reiterated values in American life;   future generations should have it better than their predecessors. If the Romney campaign had any competence they would come up with ads in record time targeted in swing states where Obama currently has the edge  citing these findings  running into the continued theme of the campaign  asking Americans if they are better off than they were four years from now.

But knowing this campaign, they have so far never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The Romney campaign managed to turn what should have been an week of easy press into a comedy of errors by insulting Britain during the Olympics and Palestinians while in Israel. They have failed to answer calls of democrats to release his tax return as democrats have successfully framed Mitt Romney as a cold blooded capitalist in a climate where one could be burned at the steak.

In sum, the recent findings serve as further proof of a truth that is becoming self-evident; the American dream is in trouble and it going to take longer than four years to keep it alive.

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[1] R. Morin and S. Motel, 2012, A Third of American Now Say They Are in the Lower Classes, http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/09/10/a-third-of-americans-now-say-they-are-in-the-lower-classes/

[2] Ibid

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

(video) Bill Maher On Brokaw: Balance v Objectivity

(Video) Julian Castro DNC Keynote Address: Home run to 2016?

(Video) Michelle Obama DNC Speech: Out the Ball Park

(Opinion) Julian Castro: Is This The Next Democratic Presidential Nominee?

With the news of President Obama picking San Antonio mayor Julian Castro to deliver the keynote speech at the national democratic convention , it is quite clear that democratic party have a firm eye on  2016. It was widely reported that the highly popular law professor and current Massachusetts senate candidate Elizabeth Warren would be chosen for the spot but has she has placed to address the democratic convention right before former president Bill Clinton. 

While the name Julian Castro may be unfamiliar to many , after the democratic convention, it will be all the media at large will talk about as he ticks all the boxes required to rise in the democratic party. It is no surprise as to why Castro has been chosen to deliver the Keynote address as he is an accomplished orator capable of being charming and personal at more intimate settings (see TED address below) and inspiring and engaging on bigger stages. 

He is youngest ever to be elected mayor of a major city that is America's seventh largest economy. He has fresh ideas about education, an issue would likely to be at the forefront of  of any campaign should he choose to run for greater office. He has, unlike more established democrats, has managed to frame education as not a expensive entitlement or luxury but a key social and economic imperative. 

He's currently pushing a new initiative that would increase access to education for young children as he sees that the key to a new economy is to ensure all children have access to an good education.

His stance on immigration is stronger than the president's as he would like to see America open to the world rather walled off from it which in a state where Hispanics are a large demographic could play well.

However, for all the appeal Castro has as a candidate for greater office, it is likely he will be offered a cabinet position if Obama gets a second term, probably high up in the department of education or even head it. despite his public insistence that his eye is firmly fixed on the future of San Antonio, It is clear that this is an attempt at modesty from a individual who is nothing short of impressive.

In sum, It is hard not see Obama's and the DNC's decision as a ploy to appease latino voters in key states but it is a sure bet that after the national democratic convention, Mayor Castro rise into the national conscious will be undeniable. 

 

Prediction 1: Obama Will Win Election 2012

Despite less than encouraging poll numbers, a discontented base, and a shot economy, Barack Obama, probably by a close margin, will win election 2012.

WHY?

While you can rightly argue whether Barack Obama has done good job as the president of the United States, but even Reince Priebus, head of the RNC, recognizes Obama’s unmatchable talent for political fundraising[1]. In election 2008, Obama broke records in political fundraising by raising $744 million, which meant he was able to outspend his rival John McCain, whose funds were limited due to him accepting public funds[2]. This made all the difference as Obama was able to outspend McCain at a crucial juncture in the election with Obama spending $136 million while McCain spent $26 million in the same period[3]. While campaign funds it aren’t the only factor to consider in winning an election it definitely hands a major advantage to the candidate who can raise more funds than his competitors. 

It allows a candidate to reach ad markets his rivals can’t and even allows the given candidate the ability to be a real threat in states considered to be sewn up by his/her rivals. This advantage belongs to Obama’s campaign in the 2012 election as he has raised more funds than mitt Romney, the republican’s top fundraiser, by a three to one margin[4].Obama is already using his advantage in the knowledge that his appeal, in comparison to  election 2008, has waned. The Obama campaign plans to be competitive across the board, allowing him to fight effectively in swing states and states that usually voted republican, states which previous democrat candidates couldn’t because of a lack of funds[5]. 

This means that Obama avoids the democratic strategy of putting “all their marbles on a couple of states”[6]. its also a key reason why the Obama campaign “are opening offices, airing TV ads and building up campaign machinery in(red state territory such as) the upper South, in Rust Belt Midwestern states and across the Southwest”[7]. The money advantage carries over into the parties as the DNC has raised and spent more money than the RNC which found itself bargaining with the republican presidential candidates to help tackle it’s $21 million debt[8]. This allows the DNC to back Obama as he attempts to pass his needed and wanted jobs bill by launching attack ads that promote parts of Obama’s jobs bill while blaming Republicans for slowing down its passing through the senate in states considered being key in the election[9]. 

Money aside, many suggest that how Obama does in  Ohio could decide whether he will have second term or will go down in history as a one term president. Poor numbers in the polls has Commentators openly wandering aloud about whether Obama’s ‘coalition’ African-Americans, Latinos, young people, and women can seal victory for him in 2012 as they did in 2oo8[10]. but recent polling suggests that despite the tangible dislike of his presidency, he still trumps his republican rivals. A poll taken by Quinnipiac University regarding voters in Ohio, a key swing state that sealed George bush reelection in 2004, has Obama four points ahead of republican front runner mitt Romney despite their discontent about his administration with 51% dissatisfied with the ‘handlings’ of his ‘duties in the white house’ and 49% of Ohio voters indicating that Obama ‘don’t deserve a second term in office’[11] .In sum, Presiedent Obama will have second term due his money advantage and despite the palpable dislike of his presidency, voters will vote for Obama because he represents a better choice to the republican alternative.

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[1] M. A. Memoli, 2011, RNC chairman says Obama is a great fundraiser, bad president, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/13/news/la-pn-rnc-obama-funds-20110713

[2] A. Matsui, 2008, Obama campaign fundraising totals nearer $750 million, new records show, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2008/reportersblog/2008/12/obama_campaign_fundraising_tot.html

[3] Ibid

[4] E. Carmi et al, 2011, the 2012 money race: compare the candidates, http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

[5] P. Nicholas, 2011, Obama Strategic edge: cash to campaign everywhere, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/07/nation/la-na-obama-states-strategy-20111107

[6] Ibid

[7] Ibid

[8] Associated Press,2011, RNC may sponsor debates in exchange for help on debt, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/us/politics/03debates.html

[9] A. Joseph, 2011, DNC ads push Obama’s jobs plan,  http://influencealley.nationaljournal.com/2011/11/dnc-pushes-obamas-jobs-plan-in.php

[10] D.Balz, 2011, does Ohio hold the key to Obamas’ 2012 hopes? http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/does-ohio-hold-the-key-to-obamas-2012-hopes/2011/11/08/gIQAVhis0M_story.html

[11] P.Steinhauser, 2011, Poll: Obama Advantage in Crucial battleground state?, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/26/poll-obama-advantage-in-crucial-battleground-state/