The Carnage Report, for those who like marketing, tech and culture covered without pity or favour

Despite less than encouraging poll numbers, a discontented base, and a shot economy, Barack Obama, probably by a close margin, will win election 2012.

WHY?

While you can rightly argue whether Barack Obama has done good job as the president of the United States, but even Reince Priebus, head of the RNC, recognizes Obama’s unmatchable talent for political fundraising[1]. In election 2008, Obama broke records in political fundraising by raising $744 million, which meant he was able to outspend his rival John McCain, whose funds were limited due to him accepting public funds[2]. This made all the difference as Obama was able to outspend McCain at a crucial juncture in the election with Obama spending $136 million while McCain spent $26 million in the same period[3]. While campaign funds it aren’t the only factor to consider in winning an election it definitely hands a major advantage to the candidate who can raise more funds than his competitors.

It allows a candidate to reach ad markets his rivals can’t and even allows the given candidate the ability to be a real threat in states considered to be sewn up by his/her rivals. This advantage belongs to Obama’s campaign in the 2012 election as he has raised more funds than mitt Romney, the republican’s top fundraiser, by a three to one margin[4].Obama is already using his advantage in the knowledge that his appeal, in comparison to election 2008, has waned. The Obama campaign plans to be competitive across the board, allowing him to fight effectively in swing states and states that usually voted republican, states which previous democrat candidates couldn’t because of a lack of funds[5].

This means that Obama avoids the democratic strategy of putting “all their marbles on a couple of states”[6]. its also a key reason why the Obama campaign “are opening offices, airing TV ads and building up campaign machinery in(red state territory such as) the upper South, in Rust Belt Midwestern states and across the Southwest”[7]. The money advantage carries over into the parties as the DNC has raised and spent more money than the RNC which found itself bargaining with the republican presidential candidates to help tackle it’s $21 million debt[8]. This allows the DNC to back Obama as he attempts to pass his needed and wanted jobs bill by launching attack ads that promote parts of Obama’s jobs bill while blaming Republicans for slowing down its passing through the senate in states considered being key in the election[9].

Money aside, many suggest that how Obama does in Ohio could decide whether he will have second term or will go down in history as a one term president. Poor numbers in the polls has Commentators openly wandering aloud about whether Obama’s ‘coalition’ African-Americans, Latinos, young people, and women can seal victory for him in 2012 as they did in 2oo8[10]. but recent polling suggests that despite the tangible dislike of his presidency, he still trumps his republican rivals. A poll taken by Quinnipiac University regarding voters in Ohio, a key swing state that sealed George bush reelection in 2004, has Obama four points ahead of republican front runner mitt Romney despite their discontent about his administration with 51% dissatisfied with the ‘handlings’ of his ‘duties in the white house’ and 49% of Ohio voters indicating that Obama ‘don’t deserve a second term in office’[11] .In sum, Presiedent Obama will have second term due his money advantage and despite the palpable dislike of his presidency, voters will vote for Obama because he represents a better choice to the republican alternative.

[1] M. A. Memoli, 2011, RNC chairman says Obama is a great fundraiser, bad president, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/13/news/la-pn-rnc-obama-funds-20110713

[2] A. Matsui, 2008, Obama campaign fundraising totals nearer $750 million, new records show, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2008/reportersblog/2008/12/obama_campaign_fundraising_tot.html

[3] Ibid

[4] E. Carmi et al, 2011, the 2012 money race: compare the candidates, http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

[5] P. Nicholas, 2011, Obama Strategic edge: cash to campaign everywhere, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/07/nation/la-na-obama-states-strategy-20111107

[6] Ibid

[7] Ibid

[8] Associated Press,2011, RNC may sponsor debates in exchange for help on debt, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/us/politics/03debates.html

[9] A. Joseph, 2011, DNC ads push Obama’s jobs plan, http://influencealley.nationaljournal.com/2011/11/dnc-pushes-obamas-jobs-plan-in.php

[10] D.Balz, 2011, does Ohio hold the key to Obamas’ 2012 hopes? http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/does-ohio-hold-the-key-to-obamas-2012-hopes/2011/11/08/gIQAVhis0M_story.html

[11] P.Steinhauser, 2011, Poll: Obama Advantage in Crucial battleground state?, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/26/poll-obama-advantage-in-crucial-battleground-state/