Tuesday, July 4, 2017

(The Big Disrupt) Google: Why Google's future In Europe Is About Get Expensive






With the news of Google being slapped with a record 2.4 billion fine, it caps an end of a saga that really isn't over just yet. Google were found last week to be guilty of abusing their dominant market position in search to promote its Google shopping service over its competitors

This really should send shivers down the spine of other tech giants such as Facebook, Apple and Amazon who habitually use their dominant position in one market to bolster a service in other. Indeed, one of the reasons why Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon are so feared is because they can use their dominance one or more markets along with a large war chest to bury even their most strident competitors into submission. 

The last decade or so has produced one case study after another of US tech companies beating their competitors to a pulp whether its Apple taking over the smartwatch market in a matter of months or Facebook using its dominant position in social media to copy snapchat out of existence as the self-titled camera company currently hovers just above its original IPO price 

With this in mind, it's little surprise that Walmart, a highly profitable company that represents 14% of the $700 billion grocery market, has 4,692 stores and a world class distribution network took a big hit on Wall Street when Amazon, barely a blip in the marketplace, made headlines for buying Whole Foods, which only has 466 stores and a 1.2% share of the market 

In any other case, Walmart would have nothing to worry about but since Amazon enjoys a dominant position in more than one marketplace and has one of best loyalty programs ever in Amazon primeit can quickly hoover up market share offering its other services (for a time at least) free to entice prime subscribers to shop at Whole Foods online or click and collect in store.  

In short, Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon pose a threat to competition in any market they enter and no one knows this more than the EU. While the 2.4 billion fine isn't exactly going to bring Google to its knees, the EU has been sniffing round Google's mobile open source OS Android accusing the Mountain View based company of forcing manufactures to load its apps over competitors which should concern Google as it may have a better case however, not much has happened since last year.        
In truth, Google and other US based tech giants run the risk breaking EU antitrust law as it focuses on the anti-competitive behaviour of dominant companies that effect the it actual competitors as opposed to the American tradition of protecting consumers from the use of  the dominant firms market power. 

While Google dominance in the search and mobile OS markets has been probed by the Federal Trade Commission in the past, it has largely come out of its battles with the FTC unscathed as the FTC has been unable to prove that Google's dominance negatively impacts consumers given most of Google's products and services are either free or priced competitively in the markets it operates in.  

What this means is that the FTC can't punish Google for using its dominance in one or more markets to bolster a service in another even if that service itself becomes a dominant player so long as it provides net benefits to the end consumer.  

However, antitrust in Europe is a different monster entirely and Google in particular could end up cutting more checks than it bargained for as the EU legal process is nowhere near as litigious as its American counterpart and Google has a lot of powerful enemies, Oracle, Microsoft and Newscorp among them, who are more than willing provide evidence against the company through the EU's complaints driven system. 

In sum, Google may be 2.4 billion pounds lighter but with the EU looking to bring Silicon Valley behemoths like it to heel and its bevy of rivals all too willing to help, fines in the billions could become business as usual. 

Friday, June 23, 2017

(The Big Disrupt) Amazon: Why Amazon buying Whole Foods is "awfully scary"











It wasn't that long ago when Netflix founder and CEO Reed Hastings described Amazon as "awfully scary" and with it's recent purchase grocery retailer Whole Foods, nothing but fear and awe was palpable. 

Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods must have sent shivers of fear down the spines of Rodney McMullen (CEO of Kroger foods),Doug McMillon (CEO of Walmart) and Brian Cornell (CEO of Target) as it most certainty spooked their investors which saw them and other lose $22 billion of their market cap.     

Besides getting slammed every quarter, there are a number of reasons why Walmart, Kroger, Target and others should fear Amazon, number one and two by far being  customer retention and the last mile problemFor obvious reasons, most companies tend to focus on acquiring new customers more than keeping them but grocers has been notorious for eschewing the use of loyalty programs until recently and now find themselves competing directly with a company that has possibly the most impressive loyalty program in history in Amazon prime with an obscenely high customer retention rate of 96%  

No player in the grocery market can compete with this level of customer loyalty and with Amazon almost certain to lower Whole Foods infamously high prices (the company didn't earn its unwanted "whole paycheck" nickname for nothing), offer store and price perks to encourage Whole Foods shoppers to join Prime and over time cut inefficiencies out of Whole Foods business to the point Whole Foods stores become merely highly automated distribution networks in all but name, grocery retailers are going to have real problems, staying in business among them. 

However, what should keep grocery executives across US up at night is that Whole Foods effectively eliminates Amazon's most prominent weakness, it's inability to solve the last mile problem (getting goods from distribution centers to customer's doorsteps)It's no secret that Amazon has had a hard time mastering fresh food delivery but with the purchase of Whole Foods, Amazon now has a distribution system that effectively solves which makes Amazon even more formidable.  

What this means is Amazon now can increase the product range it offers to prime members as well as regular customers online and provide greater click and collect payment options which improves Amazon's already impressive distribution network. Add to that Amazon finally being able to reach customers who like the traditional shopping experience and like to touch and feel fresh food before they buy it,  Amazon 13.7 billion is looking like a bargain already. 

All this is terrible news for grocery retailers but this is nothing compared to why everyone is terrified to compete with Amazon, deflation. As mentioned before, Amazon will almost certainly lower prices at Whole Foods which will force other retailers follow suit which will have a deflationary effect on the price on food which has already been at record lows for years. This is no shock to grocery retailers as groceries is a low margin business but unlike its competitors, Amazon isn't under pressure from Wall street every quarter to make money which means can lower prices and take hits to its bottom line its competitors can't do without billions wiped off their market cap every quarter. 

It's not all bad news as Amazon and Whole Foods currently represent just 0.2 and 1.2 of the grocery market as things stand and market leaders Walmart and Kroger's have much larger distribution networks. Walmart has been especially aggressive in growing its online presence and is growing faster online than Amazon of late and is best placed out of all retailers to compete with the Seattle based  tech giant. 

However, Walmart executives aren't deluded enough to think that Amazon and Whole Foods won't take market share off its competitors as it systematically grows it's distribution network and strips the fat out of it through the use of automation and tracking software dramatically improving Whole Foods supply chain. 

In sum, if Amazon is on a quest for world domination, it took a very large step in the right direction.     

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