Much has been made of China
apparent rise and the factors, consequences and potential outcomes possible attached
to its growth, but so far, much of it has been negative and with the rate that
China is expanding it’s military capabilities and importing oil, pessimists towards
China’s growth as a international player have a solid argument as to why the
glass is half empty.
While China may be in a region where it is next door neighbor is
a nuclear police state in North Korea and is less than pally with it’s even less than favorite neighbor in Japan, It safe to say that China are increasing their military
prowess at a alarming pace with its navy “now second in size only to the US in
terms of raw numbers”[1]. This is possible thanks to massive spikes in
China’s defense budget with it’s leadership revealing a massive 11.2 percent
boost in 2012 alone following “a long term trend of double digit percentage increases
in annual spending” [2].
While it might not entirely
clear just how much China is spending to build up its military power, according
to Pentagon estimates, Security has no
price in Bejing as spending could be “between $120 billion and $180 billion”[3].
While China massive defense spending hikes would send a shiver down any neighboring nation's spine, China’s less than cordial behavior towards it’s neighbors does nothing to ease the real fears of how China will act when it completes it’s ascent to become the world’s foremost superpower.
China has been super assertive towards
it’s neighbours, particularly Japan, over small disputed islands which both sides claim to be theirs to the
point that both sides have already named the island as China has named lands (currently
in dispute with Japan) in the East China Sea ‘Diaoyu’ while Japan refer to the
lands as ‘Senkaku’[4].
China, none to shy asserting itself, has land disputes with regional neighbours “Philippines
and Vietnam, as well as Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia, over territory in the
South China Sea”[5]
While you may now be thinking
why China would kick up such a fuss in its region over minuscule islands you
would struggle to locate with Google Earth ,
the fact that the islands are, wait for it, “resource-rich” may ease
your search for an answer. China are
also trying out it’s naval power in the form of “patrols and exercises” in
these “contested waters” because China will eventually seek to make the islands
theirs and there will be little it’s neighbours can do about it.
The news of China surpassing
Uncle Sam in oil imports may have come as a shock to most due to the US’s well
documented reliance on middle east oil and the even better documented foreign
policy implications of relying on oil from the Middle East, but it shouldn’t
have to a shock to anybody.
China has a big oil demand due
to it’s population size and a slowed but still growing economy but maybe the concern of China becoming the world’s foremost
buyer of oil was over the historical
need for oil for nations to fight sustained wars. While there is no
indication that China is looking for a military confrontation with anybody,
when a nation buys oil at a rate China is, the political classes of all countries
involved watch closely with trepidation as there is only two real reasons for
such an influx, a growing economy with a big oil demand or the preparation and
possible execution of sustained military campaign.
China’s oil buying, defence
spending and it’s new assertiveness in the region has a number of nations
spooked, especially Japan. Japan
uneasiness over China’s growth as a military threat had made Japan increase it’s own defence budget increase (it’s first
in over a decade) by a meagre (in comparison to China’s at least) 0.8 percent
and its “coast guard budget” by 1.9 percent “ in response to China’s “incursions”[6].
It might have been more but Japan are in no position to assert itself against
China as Japan is hamstrung by it inability to “service record debt “ and a “decades old informal
military spending limit of 1 percent of gross domestic product”[7].
China’s other neighbour, India
are also less than comfortable with it’s
rise signalled by it’s recent
nuclear show of force and an increase of its defence budget to the tune of $37.7 billion[8]
. Both India and Japan have sought to establish stronger ties with each other
with Japan being “the largest donor of official
development aid to India” [9].
Both nations, encouraged by the
US especially and more importantly, have been long looking to contain the rise
of China with a conspicuous increase in trade between the countries as trade
between India and Japan was only $6.5 billion in 2005 but jumped to $18.5 billion
just six years later[10].
However, all this minor positioning and balancing on the part of China’s
regional rivals is the work of the
United States, who see China as a threat to it’s previously unparalleled global
dominance.
In Sum, China rise in military and
economic might was always going to scare neighbours and concern rival but the
pace over the thirty has been phenomenal and now we are only now starting to see how
the world responds to what now looks like
China are looking to assert themselves more as nation of their size and
stature has, and as China’s political leadership might argue, should.
[1] D.
Lague and T.Y. Jones, 2013, China Defence spending seen rising as territorial rows
deepen, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/01/us-china-defence-idUSBRE9200HH20130301
[2] Ibid
[3]
Ibid
[4]
Ibid
[5]
Ibid
[6] I.
Reynolds, 2013, Japan Defense Budget to Increase for First Time in 11 Years, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-defense-spending-to-increase-for-first-time-in-11-years.html
[7]
Ibid
[8] S.
Choudhury, 2013, India Increase Defense Budget to $37.7 billion, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324662404578331762186925312.html
[9]
T. Kitazume, 2013, Japan urged to help build India’s Infrastructure,
[10]
Ibid
